sizzlinghotfreegame|连续六天回调，债市债基大跌，"收蛋人"如何收蛋？

"when long-end interest rates go down most smoothlySizzlinghotfreegameOh, it may have passed. " In response to the recent major adjustment in the bond market, market participants made such predictions. Since April 24, 30-year treasury bond yields have pulled out six positive lines in one breath. Below the rising yields, the debt base has fallen by more than 1% in a week, and the "egg collector" (a nickname for debt-based investors by fund managers) began to suffer losses.

Analysis bluntly, in the previous huge rise, long-end interest rates accumulated a large number of trading, the more fragile trading structure significantly magnified the volatility of the bond market adjustment. That is to say, the current adjustment of the bond market is still short-term and trading, and the long-term positive factors have not changed significantly. After entering May, the long-term factors supporting the improvement of the bond market have not changed significantly, so we can consider appropriately shortening the duration and waiting for the opportunity to increase positions after the adjustment of the bond market.

"the rate of adjustment is close to last year's level."

According to flush (300033) iFinD data, most of the market-wide bond funds suffered floating losses in the week to April 30, with a median yield of-0.Sizzlinghotfreegame.0194%. Among them, Huaxia Dingfu Bond A lost more than 1%, Western Lide Xinhong enhanced Bond An and ICBC Convertible Bond fell by more than 0%.Sizzlinghotfreegame.8%, in addition, funds such as Citic Prudential Wanda A, Huidian Fu Wenle return Bond A, Guangfa Jili one-year fixed Bond An and other funds fell by more than 0.3%.

Judging from the trend of 30-year treasury bond yields, the steady downward trend since mid-April gradually broke in late April, with the index pulling out six positive lines since April 24, and the yield fell back from 2.4% to about 2.55%. In terms of 10-year Treasury yields, the index rose 1.69% on April 24, then 5.85% on April 28 and 1.07% on April 29.

Huaxia Fund bluntly said that the bond market has generally shown a bullish pattern so far this year, with the yield on 10-year treasury bonds falling sharply from a high of 2.7% at the beginning of the year to a recent low of 2.2%. However, during the overall bull run of the market, market adjustment is inevitable because investors are afraid of heights in the short term. As of April 29, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note had retracted from a low of nearly 2.2% to around 2.35%, which was close to the bond market adjustment in August-October last year, but compared with that in August-October last year, the market supply shock has not yet occurred. "

China Merchants Fund holds a similar view. According to the analysis of China Merchants Fund, from a mid-point of view of high-frequency data, the performance of terminal demand is divergent, the growth rate of new land production and sales in 42 cities narrowed in the first 25 days of April, and the growth rate of retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars in the first 21 days of April slowed down.SizzlinghotfreegameIndustrial production also resumed further, and the growth rate of steel output of sample steel mills picked up, but the operating rate of petroleum asphalt units declined, and the average daily coal consumption growth rate of the six major power generation groups fell in the first 25 days of April. "overall, the current degree of fundamental repair does not pose a significant upward risk of a significant rebound in interest rates."

"risk appetite in the bond market has rebounded recently, and short-end interest rates have also risen." Boshi fund analysis said that so far high-frequency data have not observed a significant improvement in economic fundamentals. From the performance of asset prices, the market has once again produced some optimistic expectations for the follow-up real estate policy. From a policy point of view, the central bank has recently made a clear statement on the pricing of long-end interest rates, which has further cooled the trading sentiment in the market.

Long-end interest rates have accumulated a large number of trading orders before.

So why have the bond market fluctuated so much in the near future? From the analysis of the industry, there are both economic fundamentals and market transaction factors.

Huaxia Fund mentioned that on April 23, the relevant media published an interview with people related to the central bank, mentioning that "the yield of long-term treasury bonds will always run within a reasonable range matching the expectations of long-term economic growth." the market has made spontaneous pricing adjustments. Now 30-year treasury bonds are back at 2.5%. At the same time, the market is worried that there may be a supply of local bonds and special treasury bonds after May, aggravating the adjustment of the bond market. In addition, expectations of loosening real estate policy, such as the relaxation of restrictions on property purchases in Chengdu at the weekend and the Politburo meeting to be held at the end of April, are worried that some policy stimulus policies may be introduced to stabilize growth. "however, from the logical chain of bond market pricing in recent years, the relaxation of real estate policy often has a time-related impact on yields, and the sustainability is often relatively weak, and the bond market is more concerned about the actual volume and price changes in real estate sales."

Boshi Fund believes that the recent bond market adjustment is significant, especially the previous increase in the long-end and ultra-long-end varieties. Of course, this has something to do with the central bank's statement and changes in risk appetite. But more importantly, in the previous huge rise, long-end interest rates accumulated a large number of trading, the more fragile trading structure, so that the volatility of the bond market adjustment significantly magnified. "We think the smoothest period of the long-end interest rate downturn may be over and the bond market will enter a period of volatility. However, when the economic fundamentals (especially the property chain) do not observe a trend improvement, we believe that the room for yield upside is also limited. "

"taken together, the current adjustment of the bond market is still a short-term, transaction-level adjustment, and the change in regulatory attitude is more worried that interest rates are on the low side and the impact will decline after returning to the range of performance-to-price ratios; the loosening of real estate policy, the impact is more at the expected level, and then enters the stage of waiting for sales data, the impact may be passivated; the acceleration of bond issuance is also repeatedly expected that the key is the stability of the capital side." According to the Huaxia Foundation.

How to intervene after this callback?

After a round of adjustment at the end of April, the market believes that after entering May, the long-term factors supporting the improvement of the bond market have not changed significantly, and consideration can be given to appropriately shortening the duration and waiting for the opportunity to increase positions after the bond market adjustment.

Huaxia Fund said that the real longer-term impact on the bond market should be other signals that are more clearly indicative of fundamental recovery. At present, there are no factors that really trigger the reversal of the bond bull market, the monetary policy is still sound and loose, the "asset shortage" will continue in the short term, and profound changes have taken place in the supply and demand relationship and market expectations of the real estate industry. the long-term factors supporting the improvement of the bond market have not changed obviously. judging from the performance of China's bond market in the past period of time, any major correction is a very good opportunity for intervention.

“目前在央行针对长端收益率的持续发声与表态下，短期内债市情绪可能略显谨慎。”招商基金表示，长端方面，当前长端收益率过低，若后续政策持续表态，或导致前期过度追逐长久期债券的交易型和配置型机构采取行动迅速止盈，从而加大债市的波动；短端方面，由于理财对于“高息”存款、非标等资产可获得性下降，配置压力可能会向货基和短债基金传导，短期或仍有配置需求的支撑。

“后续需关注监管政策对债市情绪影响、月末PMI数据超预期的可能性、地产政策是否进一步放松并在‘五一’黄金周带来明显修复，以及5月债券的供给节奏。组合操作上或可选择保持一定流动性，考虑适当缩短久期，等待债市调整之后的加仓机会。”招商基金。

前海开源祥和债券基金的基金经理章俊表示，债券市场需要进入一个新的平衡，当配置资金形成稳定预期后会形成一个新的价格中枢，然后再根据经济发展情况和政策效果寻找新的方向。如果短期政策端发力或者经济企稳效果较好，那么债券有可能进行盘整；如果经济数据仍然偏弱，那么有希望继续稳步上涨。“经历过近期的大幅上涨后，他对超长债保持中性的态度，不会急于加大超长债的配置比例。对一些投资者跟风‘ALL IN’某只债券基金的行为，章俊认为不可取。他建议，投资者在选择二级债基的时候根据自身的收益预期、风险偏好和投资经验选择更适合自己的产品。”

但也有机构态度相对谨慎。中欧基金认为，二季度全球市场可能需要重新计价美联储未来货币政策的节奏。部分数据显示年初以来的美国通胀抬头可能并不是暂时性现象，美国通胀回落进程正在停滞。市场已开始重新评估通胀前景及降息开启时点的节奏进程。本轮长端利率的调整来自于央行关注和潜在的供给担忧，更值得关注的是短端也开始调整，与之相应的是资金边际收敛、大行净融出减少，同时可以看到大行对短端利率的买入也明显减少甚至转向卖出。“考虑到5月政府债净融资高峰，央行持续20亿逆回购投放，前期大行资金充裕的格局可能会扭转，短端可能重回息差主导逻辑。这种情况下，建议暂时观望为主。”